Lula Wins Fourth Term in Brazil, Keeping Betting Ban Government in Power

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won Brazil's presidential runoff, beating Flávio Bolsonaro on Sunday, October 25, to take a fourth term. With 99.75% of votes counted at 9:12pm Brasília time, the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) had Lula on 51.75% of valid votes and Bolsonaro on 48.25%.

The win keeps the betting ban's authors in office. Lula signed Provisional Measure (MP) 1,394 on September 25, less than 10 days before the first round. Operator websites went offline on October 6, and licensees' federal authorizations expired on election day, according to reports.

Brazil licensed its regulated market only in January 2025, after years of preparation, and the MP does not refund the R$30 million (€5.3 million) license fee. Reports describe the result as a setback for an industry that had hoped for a change of government. In our reading, the fight over the market now sits with Congress and the courts, with the government defending the ban rather than reviewing it.

A reversal on the count

Bolsonaro led the October 4 first round with 47.03% to Lula's 45.16%, and analysts named him the favorite. According to reports, Lula is the first candidate since Brazil returned to democracy in 1989 to finish second in round one and then win.

Polymarket traders had Bolsonaro at about 78% and Lula at 22% in the weeks before the runoff. By 9pm Brasília time, with about 80% of votes counted, the market had Lula at 99%.

Fux weighs a suspension

Supreme Court (STF) Justice Luiz Fux is rapporteur on three actions against the MP, one of them filed on September 28 by industry associations ANJL and IBJR. Broadcasters' association Abert and football clubs including Flamengo have joined the case.

Responding at Fux's request, the Attorney General's Office (AGU) said the ban should stay in full, describing betting as a "dragon" that had to be tamed. Fux is expected to decide on a suspension before the full court rules, Poder360 reported.

Congress holds the deadline

An MP takes effect on signature but becomes law only if Congress votes on it within 120 days of publication; otherwise it lapses. According to reports, the first 60-day period ends November 23 and can be extended once by 60 days. As of October 21, the joint review committee had not been installed.

More than 90 amendments have been tabled, according to reports. Some would bring back sports betting, while others would ban only online casino games. Congress approved the 2023 betting law, Law 14.790, and reports suggest it may be less willing than the government to close the market entirely, especially sports betting.

The re-elected government is expected to defend the ban in Congress. What lawmakers do in the coming weeks will decide whether Brazil's regulated market comes back.